Nick Hunn, author and creator of the blog – Creative Connectivity, has a neat approach to
determine the volume projections of IoT node devices (he focuses on Bluetooth Smart technology).
His analysis forecasts a market value based on Bluetooth smart enabled accessories being tied to applications on smart phones
and tablets – hence the term appcessories. Appcessories provide opportunity for revenue and
product differentiation previously only afforded by new platforms (more expensive to create).
This trend is projected to start off with Bluetooth smart enabled traditional accessories (styli,
mice, key boards) and then gradually transition to accessories that support new and innovative
applications. In 2014 these devices will be desirable objects (price point of about 50$) and
would eventually (after novelty wears off) would be more utilitarian. As the price of silicon
goes down these devices will become ubiquitous.
To Ubiquity and Beyond - Bluetooth Smart and the Growth of Appcessories | Creative Connectivity
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Clearly a tough topic. Some considerations
- Bluetooth will go everywhere. Vehicles, home hubs, PCs. So you need to look beyond phones to generate TAM
- I conscribe to the camp that the driver will be end companies that hand out wearables. If you get a 15% on health insurance if you wear something, would you wear it? Maybe.
- money will be made on services out in time. If insurance vompanies, banks etc subsidize hardware, that part of value chain will be squeezed
- these things always take longer than expected. Apps are key and this is still early ( although the promise by google of android for wearables is a great step)